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A three-statement model, stressed, with its flip point named

The capstone project for Analytics & Modelling for Consultants — a free Business course. Pass it and you earn a certificate anyone can verify.

Start the course free Download the project workbook

The project unlocks once you complete the lessons. The workbook is free to download now so you can see exactly what is expected.

What you will submit

A link to your model (Google Sheets, or an Excel file shared from Drive or OneDrive, with view access confirmed working), plus a written summary of roughly 800 to 1,400 words containing: what the three checks read; your assumptions sheet described, including the units, sources and dates; the cash conversion cycle in days, the lowest cash balance and its month; the bottom-up build with its top-down triangulation, the gap between them, the capacity check and the implied growth rate; the cost classification with the exchange-rate-exposed share and the named step-cost trigger; the sensitivity ranking, the two-way table's values and the flip point stated in words; the three named scenarios with outcome, margin, cash low point and month for each; and the one-page executive summary reproduced in full.

What to do, step by step

  1. Build a monthly three-statement model — profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow — covering the 24 months of supplied history plus 12 forecast months. Use the supplied operating dataset for the synthetic packaging manufacturer, or your own business's real figures if you have access to two years of them (say which you used). Put a VISIBLE check block at the top of the first sheet with three rows: total assets minus liabilities minus equity (must be zero in every period), closing cash on the cash flow versus the cash line on the balance sheet, and retained earnings rolling forward. State in your writeup what those checks read.
  2. Drive the whole model from ONE assumptions sheet. Every number a human chose lives there once, and each row carries four things: the value, its unit, where it came from, and the date it was true. Nothing may be typed inside a formula except genuine arithmetic constants. Revenue must be built as volume times price, and at least three cost lines as quantity times rate — including energy, modelled from running hours, litres and price per litre alongside whatever grid supply arrived, not as a percentage of revenue.
  3. Model working capital in DAYS, not amounts: inventory days, receivable days and payable days, each derived from the supplied history rather than assumed. State the resulting cash conversion cycle, and identify the LOWEST cash balance your forecast reaches and the exact month it occurs. If the business needs financing before that month, say how much and when.
  4. Forecast the 12 months bottom-up from physical quantities, then triangulate: produce one independent top-down estimate, state the gap between the two and which one your recommendation rests on, and check the forecast against a physical capacity constraint (machine hours, storage, or available power). Apply an explicit monthly seasonality index derived from the supplied history — do not divide an annual figure by twelve — and state the implied annual growth rate as an output you have inspected.
  5. Classify every cost line as variable, fixed or stepped against your stated horizon, and mark each as directly exposed, indirectly exposed or not exposed to the exchange rate. Report the share of the cost base that carries direct or indirect exposure. Identify at least ONE step cost, state the capacity of one unit, and name the month and volume at which the next step is triggered and what it costs.
  6. Rank your assumptions by how far each swings the outcome across an evidenced range, and present the ranking. Cross the top TWO in a two-way table. Then state the flip point in plain words: the recommendation holds provided one named variable stays above a stated level and another stays below a stated level. Ranges must be evidenced from the supplied history and may be asymmetric — plus or minus ten per cent on everything will not do.
  7. Build THREE named scenarios — named for their content, not for mood — each with a one- or two-sentence story above the numbers and inputs that obey that story. The bad case must move correlated variables together (a weaker rate raises imported input costs and fuel, softens volume, and may shorten supplier terms; fewer grid hours means more diesel). For each scenario report the outcome, the margin, the lowest cash balance and the month it occurs.
  8. Finish with a one-page executive summary: the recommendation as a single full sentence at the top, no more than four supporting numbers, the two-way grid with the flip point marked, the three-scenario strip, and a short limits box saying what the model does not include, which figures are estimates rather than measurements, what would have to be true for the recommendation to be wrong, and the earliest indicator that it is going wrong.

Files to work with

Project workbook (fill in, then submit)The whole brief, an evidence checklist, the grading rubric as a self-check and the link-sharing steps in one file. Opens in Word, Google Docs or WPS.Word · 8 KB Manufacturer operating data — 24 months, the dataset this capstone is built onIllustrative data for a synthetic Nigerian packaging manufacturer — volumes, prices, raw-material and diesel costs, grid hours, headcount, receivables, inventory, payables, capital spend and debt. Synthetic on purpose, so nothing in it can go stale or be mistaken for market data. Use your own business's two years of figures instead if you have them, and say which you used.CSV · 4 KB

How it is graded

CriterionWeight
The model is structurally sound and genuinely ties: three statements present and linked, a visible check block whose three rows are reported and read correctly in every period, interest circularity resolved by a stated method rather than iterative calculation, and no plug or balancing line anywhere25%
The model is driven, not hardcoded: one assumptions sheet with every row carrying value, unit, source and date; no typed values inside formulas beyond arithmetic constants; revenue built as volume times price and at least three cost lines as quantity times rate, with energy driven from hours, litres and price rather than as a share of revenue15%
Working capital is modelled properly: inventory, receivable and payable days each derived from the supplied history rather than assumed, the cash conversion cycle stated, and the lowest cash balance identified with the exact month it occurs and any financing requirement quantified15%
The forecast is defensible: built bottom-up from physical quantities, triangulated against an independent top-down estimate with the gap stated and a choice made between them, checked against a named physical capacity constraint, carrying an explicit seasonality index derived from the history, with the implied growth rate stated as an inspected output15%
Risk is analysed rather than displayed: assumptions ranked over evidenced and possibly asymmetric ranges, the top two crossed in a two-way table, the flip point stated in plain words as a condition on two named variables, and three internally consistent named scenarios whose bad case moves correlated variables together, each reporting outcome, margin, cash low point and month20%
The executive page does its job: a single-sentence recommendation leading, no more than four supporting numbers each of which would change an action if it changed, the flip point marked on the grid, and an honest limits box naming exclusions, estimates, what would make the recommendation wrong and the earliest warning indicator10%

You need 65% overall to pass. A failed submission comes back with feedback and can be revised and resubmitted.

Before you submit: make your link public

If your work lives in Google Drive or Google Docs, open Share → General access and change “Restricted” to “Anyone with the link” (Viewer). Then paste the link into a private browser window: if it opens without sign-in, you are ready. A private link cannot be graded — it is the single most common reason a good project fails.

Frequently asked questions

Do I have to finish Analytics & Modelling for Consultants before submitting the project?

Yes. The submission screen opens once every lesson in Analytics & Modelling for Consultants is marked complete. The lessons are where the methods, the Nigerian context and the worked examples the project depends on are taught.

How is the project graded?

An examiner scores each rubric criterion from 0 to 100 and weights them as shown on this page; you need 65% overall to pass. Most submissions are graded within minutes and you get written feedback on what was strong and what to improve.

Can I resubmit if I fail?

Yes. A failed project comes back with feedback; revise the weak parts and resubmit. A passed project is final — the certificate is issued and cannot be re-rolled.

What do I actually submit?

A write-up of what you did (under 5,000 characters) plus a public link to your work — a Google Drive folder, Google Doc, spreadsheet, GitHub repository or video. The link must open without sign-in; a private link cannot be graded. The free project workbook on this page walks you through all 8 steps.

Is the certificate real?

Yes. Passing this project issues a certificate with a unique verification code. Anyone — an employer, a client, a school — can open the verification page and see that the certificate is genuine and which project earned it.

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