The Overround Audit & Honest Risk Brief
The capstone project for Sports Betting: Odds, Risks & the Business — a free Finance course. Pass it and you earn a certificate anyone can verify.
- Free
- 6 steps
- Pass mark 65%
- Graded within minutes
- Beginner-friendly
The project unlocks once you complete the lessons. The workbook is free to download now so you can see exactly what is expected.
What you will submit
A shared Google Drive folder containing (1) a spreadsheet auditing the real overround in three published 1X2 markets from a named licensed Nigerian bookmaker, with expected-loss and accumulator-margin workings, and (2) a one-page honest risk brief with scam patterns, red flags, and help resources.
What to do, step by step
- 1. Pick THREE real football matches listed today or this week on any LICENSED Nigerian bookmaker's website (e.g. one you verified per Lesson 5). Record the bookmaker's name, the date, and the full 1X2 (Home/Draw/Away) decimal odds for each match — screenshot or copy them into your document as evidence.
- 2. In a free Google Sheet, convert every odd to implied probability (1 ÷ odds), sum the three probabilities per match, and compute each match's overround (sum − 100%). Then compute the average margin across your three matches, showing all formulas in the cells.
- 3. Still in the sheet, work two honest scenarios: (a) the expected amount kept by the bookmaker if ₦10,000 were staked proportionally across one match's 1X2 market, and (b) the effective combined margin of a 5-leg accumulator using your average per-market margin (show the multiplication).
- 4. Write a ONE-PAGE risk brief in a Google Doc, addressed to a younger sibling or friend, in plain honest language: what your computed numbers show about long-run outcomes, the split-tip / 'sure odds' scam explained in your own words, three problem-gambling red flags, and at least two places or tools to get help (e.g. deposit limits, self-exclusion, Gambling Therapy). No winning tips, no predictions — the brief must contain zero advice on what to bet.
- 5. OPTIONAL (bonus quality, not required to pass): add a half-page agency-business note estimating startup costs for a licensed betting shop in YOUR city, with a line noting which figures need confirmation from your state gaming board.
- 6. Put the Sheet and the Doc in one Google Drive folder, set sharing to 'Anyone with the link can view', and submit that folder link.
Files to work with
Project workbook (fill in, then submit)The whole brief, an evidence checklist, the grading rubric as a self-check and the link-sharing steps in one file. Opens in Word, Google Docs or WPS.Word · 7 KBHow it is graded
| Criterion | Weight |
|---|---|
| Odds correctly converted to implied probabilities and overround computed for all three real matches, with bookmaker, date, and odds evidence included | 35% |
| Expected-loss (₦10,000 scenario) and 5-leg accumulator margin calculations are shown and arithmetically sound | 25% |
| Risk brief is honest and complete: explains what the numbers mean, describes the 'sure odds'/split-tip scam accurately, lists real red flags and at least two help resources, and contains no betting tips or winning claims | 25% |
| Presentation and verifiability: organized sheet with visible formulas, clear one-page brief, working share link | 15% |
You need 65% overall to pass. A failed submission comes back with feedback and can be revised and resubmitted.
Before you submit: make your link public
If your work lives in Google Drive or Google Docs, open Share → General access and change “Restricted” to “Anyone with the link” (Viewer). Then paste the link into a private browser window: if it opens without sign-in, you are ready. A private link cannot be graded — it is the single most common reason a good project fails.
Frequently asked questions
Do I have to finish Sports Betting: Odds, Risks & the Business before submitting the project?
Yes. The submission screen opens once every lesson in Sports Betting: Odds, Risks & the Business is marked complete. The lessons are where the methods, the Nigerian context and the worked examples the project depends on are taught.
How is the project graded?
An examiner scores each rubric criterion from 0 to 100 and weights them as shown on this page; you need 65% overall to pass. Most submissions are graded within minutes and you get written feedback on what was strong and what to improve.
Can I resubmit if I fail?
Yes. A failed project comes back with feedback; revise the weak parts and resubmit. A passed project is final — the certificate is issued and cannot be re-rolled.
What do I actually submit?
A write-up of what you did (under 5,000 characters) plus a public link to your work — a Google Drive folder, Google Doc, spreadsheet, GitHub repository or video. The link must open without sign-in; a private link cannot be graded. The free project workbook on this page walks you through all 6 steps.
Is the certificate real?
Yes. Passing this project issues a certificate with a unique verification code. Anyone — an employer, a client, a school — can open the verification page and see that the certificate is genuine and which project earned it.
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Ready to earn this certificate?
Sports Betting: Odds, Risks & the Business is free and self-paced. Finish the lessons, complete this project, and the certificate is yours to share.
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